{ "package_type": "report-evidence-excerpt", "original_schema_version": "1.0.0", "run": { "id": "20260904-sp500-20year-return-risk", "created_at": "2026-09-04T14:21:47Z", "updated_at": "2026-09-04T14:50:36Z", "status": "complete", "repository_revision": "640bc3fa5238606d5b186e6feafef924b6a9cde4" }, "request": { "raw": "用我们的skill，分析大盘最近20年的年华收益，作为长期投资有没有风险", "subject": "美股大盘最近20年的复合年化收益与长期持有风险", "task_type": "market", "report_archetype": "finance-report", "decision_use": "衡量美股大盘作为长期资产的收益、购买力、回撤、持有期与现金使用风险；非个性化买入建议", "as_of_date": "2026-09-04", "start_date": "2006-01-01", "end_date": "2025-12-31", "audience": "finance professional", "language": "zh-CN", "language_resolution": { "source": "request-language", "request_language": "zh-CN", "fallback": "en" }, "output_formats": [ "interactive-html", "json" ], "depth": "deep", "source_constraints": [ "优先指数公司、基金发行人、BLS/FRED和Investor.gov；Yahoo仅作为标记清晰的二级市场数据，本次仅供本地研究，不公开发布。" ], "clarifications": [], "assumptions": [ "大盘默认指美股标普500，非中国A股或全球股市。", "主体使用最近20个完整自然年2006–2025；2026年截至最新完整交易日单独展示，不与完整年度混算。", "使用SPY的Yahoo复权收盘价作为含分红复投回报代理，不称作独立重建的标普500总回报；使用美元和美国CPI，未计个人税费或汇率。", "为检验不同买入时点，将滚动持有期辅助样本向前扩展至SPY可获得历史，明确与主体20年窗口区分。" ] }, "original_plan": { "selected_skills": [ { "name": "finrunbook", "path": "skills/finrunbook/SKILL.md", "repository": "FinRunbook", "commit": "640bc3fa5238606d5b186e6feafef924b6a9cde4", "purpose": "问题路由、输出口径、证据账本和中文交互报告", "required_inputs": [ "研究请求", "前序证据与交付物" ], "expected_output": "问题路由、输出口径、证据账本和中文交互报告", "execution_order": 1 }, { "name": "risk-assessment", "path": "vendor/finance-accounting-skills/skills/risk-assessment/SKILL.md", "repository": "finance-accounting-skills", "commit": "862774c15d83f58536d84973b42dbbffda5af7ae", "purpose": "风险识别、历史回撤、滚动持有期、历史VaR与情景压力测试；不使用企业信用评分或衍生品交易建议", "required_inputs": [ "研究请求", "前序证据与交付物" ], "expected_output": "风险识别、历史回撤、滚动持有期、历史VaR与情景压力测试；不使用企业信用评分或衍生品交易建议", "execution_order": 2 }, { "name": "finrunbook-market-data", "path": "skills/finrunbook-market-data/SKILL.md", "repository": "FinRunbook", "commit": "640bc3fa5238606d5b186e6feafef924b6a9cde4", "purpose": "使用已安装Yahoo适配器记录SPY复权历史、标普500价格指数历史与不可变行情快照", "required_inputs": [ "研究请求", "前序证据与交付物" ], "expected_output": "使用已安装Yahoo适配器记录SPY复权历史、标普500价格指数历史与不可变行情快照", "execution_order": 3 }, { "name": "finrunbook-tone-review", "path": "skills/finrunbook-tone-review/SKILL.md", "repository": "FinRunbook", "commit": "640bc3fa5238606d5b186e6feafef924b6a9cde4", "purpose": "最终中文财经语言审校，不改变数据或证据强度", "required_inputs": [ "研究请求", "前序证据与交付物" ], "expected_output": "最终中文财经语言审校，不改变数据或证据强度", "execution_order": 4 }, { "name": "readable-human-writing", "path": "vendor/readable-human-writing/SKILL.md", "repository": "readable-human-writing", "commit": "cc669c7427ed921ffe15fae6fd91d8d4b9280676", "purpose": "polish-only中文编辑，保留财务口径与不确定性", "required_inputs": [ "研究请求", "前序证据与交付物" ], "expected_output": "polish-only中文编辑，保留财务口径与不确定性", "execution_order": 5 }, { "name": "finrunbook-validator", "path": "skills/finrunbook-validator/SKILL.md", "repository": "FinRunbook", "commit": "640bc3fa5238606d5b186e6feafef924b6a9cde4", "purpose": "来源完整性、数据快照、数值重算和语义审查", "required_inputs": [ "研究请求", "前序证据与交付物" ], "expected_output": "来源完整性、数据快照、数值重算和语义审查", "execution_order": 6 } ], "steps": [ { "order": 1, "name": "确认指数、基金与收益定义，记录数据", "status": "completed" }, { "order": 2, "name": "构建20年收益与风险模型", "status": "completed" }, { "order": 3, "name": "检验买入时点、回本和现金流顺序风险", "status": "completed" }, { "order": 4, "name": "生成中文交互报告", "status": "completed" }, { "order": 5, "name": "中文审校、数值重算、来源验证和浏览器测试", "status": "completed" } ], "output_contract": { "coverage_universe_rule": "标普500代表美国大盘股；SPY作为可投资含分红代理，^GSPC仅价格指数；不是全球市场或A股结论。", "comparison_periods": [ "主体：2005年末收盘至2025年末收盘，20个自然年", "2026 YTD：2025年末至2026-09-03，非全年", "辅助滚动样本：1993-02至最近完整月，CPI只用已公布月" ], "common_metrics": [ "复合年化CAGR", "年度回报", "扣美国CPI的实际CAGR", "日收盘最大回撤", "回本时间", "1/3/5/10/15/20年月末滚动回报", "历史波动率、VaR和预期短缺", "固定现金提取情景" ], "sector_kpis": [], "required_bridge_or_ranking": "价格指数与含分红代理/通胀调整的财富桥接；历史回撤排序；持有期损失分布", "valuation_required": false, "planned_artifacts": [ "report/index.html", "report/report-data.json" ], "valuation_reason": "不建立指数目标价，也不把历史回报作为未来预测；发行人披露的当期估值和集中度仅作为前瞻风险背景。" }, "status": "completed", "method_adaptations": [ "risk-assessment的历史VaR仅是样本损失分位数，不视为真实未来概率或最大亏损；长期持有风险以回撤与购买力为主。", "不使用需要账户持仓、个人税务或未来盈利预测的再平衡/DCF模板。", "来源条款要求行情快照与报告保持本地；不发布到examples或GitHub。" ] }, "original_completion": { "completed_at": "2026-09-04T14:50:35.968930+00:00", "numeric_audit": "model-audit.json", "browser_tests": "browser-tests.json", "semantic_review": "semantic-validation.json", "local_url": "http://127.0.0.1:8773/report/", "published": false, "warning_disclosure": "Two secondary Yahoo sources and one corporate-action adjustment warning; explicit SPY adjusted-return proxy, not independent data certification." }, "editorial_review": { "required": true, "status": "completed", "completed_at": "2026-09-04T14:49:21.471456+00:00", "reviewer": "same authoring agent, not independent editorial review", "languages": [ "zh-CN" ], "upstream_skills": [ { "name": "readable-human-writing", "path": "vendor/readable-human-writing/SKILL.md", "commit": "cc669c7427ed921ffe15fae6fd91d8d4b9280676", "languages": [ "zh-CN" ] } ], "reviewed_artifacts": [ "report/index.html", "report/report-data.json", "report/app.js", "report/style.css" ], "change_log_path": "editorial-review.json", "protected_items_preserved": true, "unresolved_issues": [] }, "publication": { "prepared_at": "2026-09-04T15:18:27.716966+00:00", "authorization": "User explicitly requested publication of this example to GitHub after the data-use limitation was disclosed.", "scope": "Report presentation, derived analytical series, attributed factual extracts, formulas and an evidence-ledger excerpt; not a raw market-data distribution service.", "source_rights": "No third-party data license is granted or represented as verified. Original collection terms remain attached to sources. User publication authorization is not provider permission.", "original_run_id": "20260904-sp500-20year-return-risk", "original_record_sha256": "e5f3a318a5d9df0f23af88326af3a0ad3b95e44e58cee27afc4b56a27869b074", "original_report_data_sha256": "dc9e44b8fe9e2e50ec7c11db2c0eb9f9811238ba8d13e939538a2b89c27798e2", "original_counts": { "facts": 16980, "evidence": 16970, "sources": 9, "calculations": 14 }, "excerpt_counts": { "facts": 20, "evidence": 16, "sources": 9, "calculations": 8 }, "excluded": [ "raw provider snapshots", "provider caches", "bulk daily price facts", "complete source documents", "private run files" ], "original_receipt_scope": "validation.json, model-audit.json, editorial-review.json, semantic-validation.json and browser-tests.json retain their original run scope and timestamps; they do not audit or license this public excerpt.", "packaging_changes": [ "Curated ledger to the report's 20 facts, 16 evidence entries and 8 calculations", "Updated publication metadata and local-only wording", "Added public gallery navigation and data-use notice" ], "model_unchanged": true }, "facts": [ { "id": "FACT-8481", "key": "scope", "statement": "标普500覆盖美国大盘股，包含500家领先公司，约占可投资市值的80%；不是全球全部股票。", "status": "verified", "material": true, "source_ids": [ "SRC-002" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-8478" ], "period": "定义，2026-09-04读取" }, { "id": "FACT-8482", "key": "spy_identity", "statement": "SPY在NYSE Arca以美元交易，ISIN为US78462F1030，跟踪标普500；指数采用自由流通市值加权。", "status": "company-reported", "material": true, "source_ids": [ "SRC-003" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-8479" ], "period": "2026-09-04" }, { "id": "FACT-8483", "key": "expense", "statement": "SPY披露年度总费率为0.0945%。", "status": "company-reported", "material": true, "source_ids": [ "SRC-003" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-8480" ], "period": "2026-09-04", "value": 0.0945, "units": "%/年" }, { "id": "FACT-8484", "key": "ssga_close", "statement": "SPY发行人披露9月3日官方收盘价为773.17美元。", "status": "company-reported", "material": true, "source_ids": [ "SRC-003" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-8481" ], "period": "2026-09-03", "value": 773.17, "units": "USD/份" }, { "id": "FACT-8485", "key": "fy1_pe", "statement": "发行人披露标普500的FY1预期市盈率为21.43倍；依赖预测盈利，非已实现市盈率。", "status": "company-reported", "material": true, "source_ids": [ "SRC-003" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-8482" ], "period": "2026-09-03", "value": 21.43, "units": "倍" }, { "id": "FACT-8486", "key": "top10", "statement": "SPY前十大证券权重（含Alphabet两个股类）依次为8.29、7.22、5.68、3.80、3.01、2.53、2.40、2.01、1.62、1.59%。", "status": "company-reported", "material": true, "source_ids": [ "SRC-003" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-8483" ], "period": "2026-09-03", "value": [ 8.29, 7.22, 5.68, 3.8, 3.01, 2.53, 2.4, 2.01, 1.62, 1.59 ], "units": "%" }, { "id": "FACT-8487", "key": "it_weight", "statement": "SPY信息技术板块权重37.78%。", "status": "company-reported", "material": true, "source_ids": [ "SRC-003" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-8484" ], "period": "2026-09-03", "value": 37.78, "units": "%" }, { "id": "FACT-8488", "key": "july_ytd", "statement": "发行人披露截至7月31日SPY年初至今NAV回报10.06%、Market Value回报10.08%，均含分配再投资。", "status": "company-reported", "material": true, "source_ids": [ "SRC-003" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-8485" ], "period": "2025-12-31/2026-07-31", "value": [ 10.06, 10.08 ], "units": "%" }, { "id": "FACT-8489", "key": "return_basis", "statement": "发行人绩效假设分配再投资；基金绩效已扣基金费用。ETF价格可能偏离净值，交易和个人税费影响投资者结果。", "status": "company-reported", "material": true, "source_ids": [ "SRC-003" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-8486" ], "period": "方法，2026-09-04读取" }, { "id": "FACT-8490", "key": "cpi_basis", "statement": "CPIAUCNS是美国城市消费者、全项目、未经季调月度价格指数，1982–1984=100；截至研究日最新已发布月为2026年7月。", "status": "verified", "material": true, "source_ids": [ "SRC-004" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-8487" ], "period": "2026-07" }, { "id": "FACT-8491", "key": "horizon", "statement": "SEC投资者教育指出：五年或更短时间内需要使用的钱，不宜选择可能迫使投资者亏损卖出的高风险投资。", "status": "verified", "material": true, "source_ids": [ "SRC-005" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-8488" ], "period": "投资者教育，2026-09-04读取" }, { "id": "FACT-8492", "key": "allocation", "statement": "资产配置应依据资金用途、时间跨度和承受损失的能力；持有很多股票不等于跨资产分散，多个基金也可能持仓重叠。", "status": "verified", "material": true, "source_ids": [ "SRC-006" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-8489" ], "period": "投资者教育，2026-09-04读取" }, { "id": "FACT-8493", "key": "index_risk", "statement": "指数基金仍承受所跟踪证券的整体市场风险，并可能因费用、交易成本和追踪误差而落后于指数。", "status": "verified", "material": true, "source_ids": [ "SRC-007" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-8490" ], "period": "投资者教育，2026-09-04读取" }, { "id": "FACT-16974", "key": "spy_series", "statement": "SPY逐日复权收盘价是供应商调整后的含分配回报代理；未独立逐笔重建分红再投资。", "status": "provider-reported", "material": true, "source_ids": [ "SRC-001" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-16968" ], "analysis_generated": true, "value": { "snapshot": "artifacts/market-data/MD-7cc518b28ffb413e.json", "sha256": "3638375103700b689f3fb30860899a7fb16df78a2e5d83544870cd93eee542a5", "field": "adj_close", "rows": 8456 }, "units": "USD/份", "period": "1993-02-01/2026-09-03" }, { "id": "FACT-16975", "key": "index_series", "statement": "^GSPC逐日收盘价是标普500价格指数，不包含分红再投资。", "status": "provider-reported", "material": true, "source_ids": [ "SRC-008" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-16969" ], "analysis_generated": true, "value": { "snapshot": "artifacts/market-data/MD-07997c2ce65348b1.json", "sha256": "0c540012d517c33e091c1600f83edd3dbda941c844d1af851b4ab6ea96d527bd", "field": "close", "rows": 8456 }, "units": "指数点", "period": "1993-02-01/2026-09-03" }, { "id": "FACT-16976", "key": "cpi_series", "statement": "CPI月度数据直接读取FRED的CPIAUCNS；2025年10月为空值，不插值或补零。", "status": "verified", "material": true, "source_ids": [ "SRC-009" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-16970" ], "analysis_generated": true, "value": { "path": "artifacts/cpi.json", "field": "value", "missing": [ "2025-10-01" ] }, "units": "1982–1984=100", "period": "1993-01/2026-07" }, { "id": "FACT-16977", "key": "long_term_view", "statement": "美股大盘可作为长期资产的增长部分，但不能承担本金保障；能否长期持有还取决于用钱时间和风险承受能力。", "status": "inferred", "material": true, "source_ids": [ "SRC-001", "SRC-009", "SRC-005", "SRC-006" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-16968", "EVD-16970", "EVD-8488", "EVD-8489" ], "reasoning": "主体样本实际CAGR为正，却发生超过一半的峰谷损失及多年回本；结合SEC时间跨度与资产配置原则，不把历史回报等同于个人适用性或未来保本。", "calculation_ids": [ "CALC-007" ], "period": "历史观察及一般研究判断，截至2026-09-04", "analysis_generated": true }, { "id": "FACT-16978", "key": "sample_risk", "statement": "本样本较长持有期的负收益窗口较少，但零负窗口不证明未来没有长期亏损。", "status": "inferred", "material": true, "source_ids": [ "SRC-001", "SRC-009" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-16968", "EVD-16970" ], "reasoning": "扩展月末样本存在负的10年回报，而15年/20年无负窗口；月末观察重叠、市场和年代有限，主体20年仅一个20年完整窗口，不能估计普适未来概率。", "calculation_ids": [ "CALC-010" ], "period": "历史观察及一般研究判断，截至2026-09-04", "analysis_generated": true }, { "id": "FACT-16979", "key": "withdrawal_risk", "statement": "有现金提取时，同一组年度回报的顺序可影响期末资产。", "status": "inferred", "material": true, "source_ids": [ "SRC-001" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-16968" ], "reasoning": "无现金流时乘积满足交换律；年初提款之后剩余本金才参与后续收益，原顺序与倒序情景的期末余额不同。非安全提取率预测。", "calculation_ids": [ "CALC-011" ], "period": "历史观察及一般研究判断，截至2026-09-04", "analysis_generated": true }, { "id": "FACT-16980", "key": "concentration_view", "statement": "大盘基金降低了单只股票风险，但仍有资产类别、市场估值和权重集中风险；历史高回报不能证明当前估值便宜。", "status": "inferred", "material": true, "source_ids": [ "SRC-003", "SRC-006", "SRC-007" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-8483", "EVD-8484", "EVD-8482", "EVD-8489", "EVD-8490" ], "reasoning": "发行人前十大证券权重合计38.15%，且信息技术占37.78%；两组重叠不相加。FY1预期市盈率是当前快照，没有未来盈利/估值模型，故不形成价格目标。", "calculation_ids": [ "CALC-013" ], "period": "历史观察及一般研究判断，截至2026-09-04", "analysis_generated": true } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "EVD-8478", "source_id": "SRC-002", "locator": "Description", "content": "标普500覆盖美国大盘股，包含500家领先公司，约占可投资市值的80%；不是全球全部股票。", "period": "定义，2026-09-04读取" }, { "id": "EVD-8479", "source_id": "SRC-003", "locator": "Listing Information / About this Benchmark", "content": "SPY在NYSE Arca以美元交易，ISIN为US78462F1030，跟踪标普500；指数采用自由流通市值加权。", "period": "2026-09-04" }, { "id": "EVD-8480", "source_id": "SRC-003", "locator": "Fund Information > Gross Expense Ratio", "content": "SPY披露年度总费率为0.0945%。", "period": "2026-09-04" }, { "id": "EVD-8481", "source_id": "SRC-003", "locator": "Fund Market Price as of Sep 03 2026 > Closing Price", "content": "SPY发行人披露9月3日官方收盘价为773.17美元。", "period": "2026-09-03" }, { "id": "EVD-8482", "source_id": "SRC-003", "locator": "Index Characteristics as of Sep 03 2026 > Price/Earnings Ratio FY1; definition in Fund Characteristics", "content": "发行人披露标普500的FY1预期市盈率为21.43倍；依赖预测盈利，非已实现市盈率。", "period": "2026-09-03" }, { "id": "EVD-8483", "source_id": "SRC-003", "locator": "Fund Top Holdings as of Sep 03 2026; descending rows NVIDIA through Tesla", "content": "SPY前十大证券权重（含Alphabet两个股类）依次为8.29、7.22、5.68、3.80、3.01、2.53、2.40、2.01、1.62、1.59%。", "period": "2026-09-03" }, { "id": "EVD-8484", "source_id": "SRC-003", "locator": "Fund Sector Breakdown as of Sep 03 2026 > Information Technology", "content": "SPY信息技术板块权重37.78%。", "period": "2026-09-03" }, { "id": "EVD-8485", "source_id": "SRC-003", "locator": "Fund Performance > Jul 31 2026 > NAV and Market Value > YTD", "content": "发行人披露截至7月31日SPY年初至今NAV回报10.06%、Market Value回报10.08%，均含分配再投资。", "period": "2025-12-31/2026-07-31" }, { "id": "EVD-8486", "source_id": "SRC-003", "locator": "Fund Performance methodology and Important Risk Disclosure", "content": "发行人绩效假设分配再投资；基金绩效已扣基金费用。ETF价格可能偏离净值，交易和个人税费影响投资者结果。", "period": "方法，2026-09-04读取" }, { "id": "EVD-8487", "source_id": "SRC-004", "locator": "Units / Frequency / Notes / Observations", "content": "CPIAUCNS是美国城市消费者、全项目、未经季调月度价格指数，1982–1984=100；截至研究日最新已发布月为2026年7月。", "period": "2026-07" }, { "id": "EVD-8488", "source_id": "SRC-005", "locator": "Gauge Your Risk Tolerance > final paragraph", "content": "SEC投资者教育指出：五年或更短时间内需要使用的钱，不宜选择可能迫使投资者亏损卖出的高风险投资。", "period": "投资者教育，2026-09-04读取" }, { "id": "EVD-8489", "source_id": "SRC-006", "locator": "What is asset allocation? / What is diversification?", "content": "资产配置应依据资金用途、时间跨度和承受损失的能力；持有很多股票不等于跨资产分散，多个基金也可能持仓重叠。", "period": "投资者教育，2026-09-04读取" }, { "id": "EVD-8490", "source_id": "SRC-007", "locator": "What are some risks of index funds?", "content": "指数基金仍承受所跟踪证券的整体市场风险，并可能因费用、交易成本和追踪误差而落后于指数。", "period": "投资者教育，2026-09-04读取" }, { "id": "EVD-16968", "source_id": "SRC-001", "locator": "artifacts/market-data/MD-7cc518b28ffb413e.json#/series/0/bars", "content": "SPY逐日复权收盘价是供应商调整后的含分配回报代理；未独立逐笔重建分红再投资。", "period": "1993-02-01/2026-09-03", "analysis_generated": true }, { "id": "EVD-16969", "source_id": "SRC-008", "locator": "artifacts/market-data/MD-07997c2ce65348b1.json#/series/0/bars", "content": "^GSPC逐日收盘价是标普500价格指数，不包含分红再投资。", "period": "1993-02-01/2026-09-03", "analysis_generated": true }, { "id": "EVD-16970", "source_id": "SRC-009", "locator": "artifacts/cpi.json#/observations", "content": "CPI月度数据直接读取FRED的CPIAUCNS；2025年10月为空值，不插值或补零。", "period": "1993-01/2026-07", "analysis_generated": true } ], "sources": [ { "id": "SRC-001", "type": "market-data", "title": "SPY 1d history (MD-7cc518b28ffb413e)", "publisher": "Yahoo Finance", "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/", "local_path": "artifacts/market-data/MD-7cc518b28ffb413e.json", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-04T14:22:24.425557+00:00", "as_of_date": "2026-09-04", "primary": false, "sha256": "3638375103700b689f3fb30860899a7fb16df78a2e5d83544870cd93eee542a5", "license_or_terms": "Unofficial Yahoo access via yfinance; personal research only; commercial/data redistribution rights not established. https://github.com/ranaroussi/yfinance", "notes": "Normalized client response; not a point-in-time vintage or independently verified exchange feed", "market_data_batch_id": "MD-7cc518b28ffb413e", "series_index": 0 }, { "id": "SRC-002", "title": "S&P 500：指数覆盖定义", "type": "official-web", "publisher": "S&P Dow Jones Indices", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/", "primary": true, "retrieved_at": "2026-09-04T14:24:58.467030+00:00", "as_of_date": "2026-09-04", "license_or_terms": "仅使用简短事实和链接；不复制指数成份数据库。" }, { "id": "SRC-003", "title": "SPY：基金身份、风险、最新估值与持仓", "type": "official-web", "publisher": "State Street Investment Management", "url": "https://www.ssga.com/us/en/individual/etfs/state-street-spdr-sp-500-etf-trust-spy", "primary": true, "retrieved_at": "2026-09-04T14:24:58.467030+00:00", "as_of_date": "2026-09-04", "license_or_terms": "发行人版权所有；仅本地研究，短事实与归因摘要，不转存整页或Morningstar专有数据。" }, { "id": "SRC-004", "title": "美国CPI：CPIAUCNS元数据", "type": "official-web", "publisher": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCNS", "primary": true, "retrieved_at": "2026-09-04T14:24:58.467030+00:00", "as_of_date": "2026-08-12", "license_or_terms": "美国官方数据，Public Domain: Citation Requested。" }, { "id": "SRC-005", "title": "短期资金与风险承受能力", "type": "official-web", "publisher": "U.S. SEC / Investor.gov", "url": "https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/save-and-invest/gauge-your-risk-tolerance", "primary": true, "retrieved_at": "2026-09-04T14:24:58.467030+00:00", "as_of_date": "2026-09-04", "license_or_terms": "美国政府投资者教育；简短归因释义。" }, { "id": "SRC-006", "title": "资产配置与分散化", "type": "official-web", "publisher": "U.S. SEC / Investor.gov", "url": "https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/getting-started/asset-allocation", "primary": true, "retrieved_at": "2026-09-04T14:24:58.467030+00:00", "as_of_date": "2026-09-04", "license_or_terms": "美国政府投资者教育；简短归因释义。" }, { "id": "SRC-007", "title": "指数基金的风险与追踪偏差", "type": "official-web", "publisher": "U.S. SEC / Investor.gov", "url": "https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/investment-products/mutual-funds-and-exchange-traded-4", "primary": true, "retrieved_at": "2026-09-04T14:24:58.467030+00:00", "as_of_date": "2026-09-04", "license_or_terms": "美国政府投资者教育；简短归因释义。" }, { "id": "SRC-008", "type": "market-data", "title": "^GSPC 1d history (MD-07997c2ce65348b1)", "publisher": "Yahoo Finance", "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/", "local_path": "artifacts/market-data/MD-07997c2ce65348b1.json", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-04T14:25:05.046103+00:00", "as_of_date": "2026-09-04", "primary": false, "sha256": "0c540012d517c33e091c1600f83edd3dbda941c844d1af851b4ab6ea96d527bd", "license_or_terms": "Unofficial Yahoo access via yfinance; personal research only; commercial/data redistribution rights not established. https://github.com/ranaroussi/yfinance", "notes": "Normalized client response; not a point-in-time vintage or independently verified exchange feed", "market_data_batch_id": "MD-07997c2ce65348b1", "series_index": 0 }, { "id": "SRC-009", "type": "official-statistics", "title": "CPIAUCNS：美国未经季调月度CPI数据", "publisher": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=CPIAUCNS&cosd=1993-01-01&coed=2026-07-31", "local_path": "artifacts/cpi.json", "sha256": "ae8ac81854579158c79695afc78c3c54804899db06aa1b64c2133da917b00327", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-04T14:26:46.069098+00:00", "as_of_date": "2026-08-12", "primary": true, "license_or_terms": "Public Domain: Citation Requested；原始BLS数据经FRED分发。", "analysis_generated": true } ], "calculations": [ { "id": "CALC-007", "key": "summary", "description": "20个完整年度收益、实际购买力和风险概览", "expression": "CAGR=(adj_end/adj_start)^(1/20)-1; price CAGR=(index_end/index_start)^(1/20)-1; real CAGR=((adj_end/adj_start)/(CPI_2025-12/CPI_2005-12))^(1/20)-1; max drawdown=min_t(adj_t/max_{s<=t} adj_s-1); volatility=sample_stdev(daily_return)*sqrt(252); arithmetic_mean=mean(calendar_year_returns); historical VaR=-sorted(returns)[floor((1-confidence)*N)]; ES=mean(loss beyond VaR)", "input_fact_ids": [ "FACT-16974", "FACT-16975", "FACT-16976" ], "result": { "start": "2005-12-30", "end": "2025-12-31", "years": 20, "nominal_cagr": 10.910843343898001, "price_cagr": 8.881597330032465, "real_cagr": 8.179356309803754, "inflation_cagr": 2.5249614411383847, "nominal_return": 693.3779969922214, "price_return": 448.39018062990857, "real_return": 381.8233683524017, "nominal_wealth": 79337.79969922215, "price_wealth": 54839.01806299086, "real_wealth": 48182.336835240174, "adj_start": 85.49710845947266, "adj_end": 678.3152465820312, "price_start": 1248.2900390625, "price_end": 6845.5, "cpi_start": 196.8, "cpi_end": 324.054, "arithmetic_mean": 12.426006320184921, "negative_years": 3, "best_year": { "year": 2013, "start": "2012-12-31", "end": "2013-12-31", "nominal": 32.30776765585765, "price": 29.601249573324353, "real": 30.350251498837455 }, "worst_year": { "year": 2008, "start": "2007-12-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "nominal": -36.79504885852215, "price": -38.485793060906715, "real": -36.85277356987917 }, "max_drawdown": { "peak": "2007-10-09", "trough": "2009-03-09", "recovery": "2012-08-16", "drawdown": -55.18944185974816, "days_to_trough": 517, "days_underwater": 1773 }, "longest_recovery": { "peak": "2007-10-09", "trough": "2009-03-09", "recovery": "2012-08-16", "drawdown": -55.18944185974816, "days_to_trough": 517, "days_underwater": 1773 }, "gain_to_recover": 123.16169257926136, "volatility": 19.387916577271618, "var95": 1.802231399984222, "var99": 3.577900429177827, "es95": 2.9821345105378447 }, "units": "收益%；财富USD；回本时间自然日", "rounding": "仅展示时保留两位小数；模型使用未舍入值", "period": "2005-12-30/2025-12-31", "source_ids": [ "SRC-001", "SRC-008", "SRC-009" ], "analysis_generated": true, "implementation": "build_model.py" }, { "id": "CALC-008", "key": "annual", "description": "逐年回报与财富路径", "expression": "annual_return_y=(last_adj_y/last_adj_{y-1}-1)*100; real_return_y=((last_adj_y/last_adj_{y-1})/(Dec_CPI_y/Dec_CPI_{y-1})-1)*100; wealth_month=10000*adj_month/adj_Dec2005; real_wealth=wealth_month/(CPI_month/CPI_Dec2005); missing CPI -> null", "input_fact_ids": [ "FACT-16974", "FACT-16975", "FACT-16976" ], "result": { "annual": [ { "year": 1994, "start": "1993-12-31", "end": "1994-12-30", "nominal": 0.3973053987198938, "price": -1.539291029147316, "real": -2.2182556637717954 }, { "year": 1995, "start": "1994-12-30", "end": "1995-12-29", "nominal": 38.04897616926011, "price": 34.11065547708709, "real": 34.631477084939654 }, { "year": 1996, "start": "1995-12-29", "end": "1996-12-31", "nominal": 22.497483713172063, "price": 20.263666170303285, "real": 18.558409520629947 }, { "year": 1997, "start": "1996-12-31", "end": "1997-12-31", "nominal": 33.4751398093224, "price": 31.008181746570852, "real": 31.24090002330149 }, { "year": 1998, "start": "1997-12-31", "end": "1998-12-31", "nominal": 28.692431346076198, "price": 26.66858915596535, "real": 26.65094067188585 }, { "year": 1999, "start": "1998-12-31", "end": "1999-12-31", "nominal": 20.389305272663094, "price": 19.526046658878403, "real": 17.241872455077136 }, { "year": 2000, "start": "1999-12-31", "end": "2000-12-29", "nominal": -9.741505686971053, "price": -10.139184665858437, "real": -12.698249466190948 }, { "year": 2001, "start": "2000-12-29", "end": "2001-12-31", "nominal": -11.758528486641085, "price": -13.042693172742602, "real": -13.106870156624495 }, { "year": 2002, "start": "2001-12-31", "end": "2002-12-31", "nominal": -21.584636263838863, "price": -23.365963957103563, "real": -23.405225139968643 }, { "year": 2003, "start": "2002-12-31", "end": "2003-12-31", "nominal": 28.181616245104514, "price": 26.38039993281984, "real": 25.816898419638655 }, { "year": 2004, "start": "2003-12-31", "end": "2004-12-31", "nominal": 10.697897945413427, "price": 8.993452410946755, "real": 7.20768571381869 }, { "year": 2005, "start": "2004-12-31", "end": "2005-12-30", "nominal": 4.828286885646915, "price": 3.0010226581274946, "real": 1.3659704996880517 }, { "year": 2006, "start": "2005-12-30", "end": "2006-12-29", "nominal": 15.84526243640061, "price": 13.619431738260701, "real": 12.974963565330233 }, { "year": 2007, "start": "2006-12-29", "end": "2007-12-31", "nominal": 5.146248931496444, "price": 3.5295730663479574, "real": 1.023219992648805 }, { "year": 2008, "start": "2007-12-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "nominal": -36.79504885852215, "price": -38.485793060906715, "real": -36.85277356987917 }, { "year": 2009, "start": "2008-12-31", "end": "2009-12-31", "nominal": 26.351844354285614, "price": 23.45419048834072, "real": 23.004485016891763 }, { "year": 2010, "start": "2009-12-31", "end": "2010-12-31", "nominal": 15.05612240498435, "price": 12.782713853760175, "real": 13.360561811277405 }, { "year": 2011, "start": "2010-12-31", "end": "2011-12-30", "nominal": 1.8949693360710729, "price": -0.0031836663936912757, "real": -1.0367370160643818 }, { "year": 2012, "start": "2011-12-30", "end": "2012-12-31", "nominal": 15.990388994997073, "price": 13.40569092662105, "real": 14.005527263726991 }, { "year": 2013, "start": "2012-12-31", "end": "2013-12-31", "nominal": 32.30776765585765, "price": 29.601249573324353, "real": 30.350251498837455 }, { "year": 2014, "start": "2013-12-31", "end": "2014-12-31", "nominal": 13.463760145628578, "price": 11.390633786748117, "real": 12.611859011373316 }, { "year": 2015, "start": "2014-12-31", "end": "2015-12-31", "nominal": 1.2342926187081549, "price": -0.7265997205823549, "real": 0.501117084384739 }, { "year": 2016, "start": "2015-12-31", "end": "2016-12-30", "nominal": 11.997930388724164, "price": 9.535022667283656, "real": 9.721621347596777 }, { "year": 2017, "start": "2016-12-30", "end": "2017-12-29", "nominal": 21.705365952956512, "price": 19.419965523287928, "real": 19.191518524582563 }, { "year": 2018, "start": "2017-12-29", "end": "2018-12-31", "nominal": -4.568990912820558, "price": -6.2372598496206795, "real": -6.357707450025174 }, { "year": 2019, "start": "2018-12-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "nominal": 31.223870646836804, "price": 28.878070225158446, "real": 28.292226817564227 }, { "year": 2020, "start": "2019-12-31", "end": "2020-12-31", "nominal": 18.331603306132436, "price": 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Durations use calendar days. Real auxiliary series=month_end_adjusted_price/month_CPI, omitting missing CPI months; do not compare monthly real depth directly to daily nominal depth.", "input_fact_ids": [ "FACT-16974", "FACT-16976" ], "result": { "main": [ { "peak": "2007-10-09", "trough": "2009-03-09", "recovery": "2012-08-16", "drawdown": -55.18944185974816, "days_to_trough": 517, "days_underwater": 1773 }, { "peak": "2020-02-19", "trough": "2020-03-23", "recovery": "2020-08-10", "drawdown": -33.717244676848715, "days_to_trough": 33, "days_underwater": 173 }, { "peak": "2022-01-03", "trough": "2022-10-12", "recovery": "2023-12-13", "drawdown": -24.49638873467447, "days_to_trough": 282, "days_underwater": 709 }, { "peak": "2018-09-20", "trough": "2018-12-24", "recovery": "2019-04-12", "drawdown": -19.348889949728566, "days_to_trough": 95, "days_underwater": 204 }, { "peak": "2025-02-19", "trough": "2025-04-08", "recovery": "2025-06-26", "drawdown": -18.75523448942731, "days_to_trough": 48, "days_underwater": 127 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